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Working group · AI, Energy & Climate

AI needs power. Who pays for the grid?

Data centers are driving a historic grid build-out. In California, the next 18 months decide whether households share the gains or just the costs.

Led by Andrew Krause (Board Chair, Balto Energy; CEO, Northern Pacific Power) and Frank Chen (co-founder & CTO, Balto Energy). Facilitated by Nadia Roumani.

01 · The problem

AI's power bill is being mailed to households.

Everyone has heard that data centers need enormous amounts of electricity. The less-told half of the story is who pays for the power plants and wires built to serve them.

Start here

How Will Data Centers Pay for Power?

Travis Kavulla, energy editor of American Affairs and head of policy at Base Power, a home-battery company. Summer 2026.

“Both the typical practice and the financial incentives of most local utility monopolies militate toward a broad socialization of costs to consumers.”
More·Kavulla's numbers and remedies

“The American electric power sector has not grown appreciably for twenty years.” Now the forecasts are sharply up, and data centers are most of the reason. Texas's grid peaks at a little under 90 gigawatts today; requests would take it to 278 by the end of the decade, 149 of them from data centers. That is, in Kavulla's words, “the equivalent of three Californias.”

Building for it costs more than it used to. Since 2019, wires and cables are up 152% and transformers 89%, against 29% for prices overall. And the default is to spread those costs across everyone:

In the largest eastern grid market, its independent monitor estimates new data center load drove 45% of $47.2 billion in capacity-auction costs over three years. Kavulla's remedies: make data centers pay at least the added cost of serving them, through an open season where they compete for grid access, and make “Bring Your Own” power “a requirement, not a suggestion.”

Most Americans buy electricity from a regulated monopoly. There is no competitor to switch to. In exchange, a state regulator sets prices so the utility recovers its costs, plus a guaranteed return on everything it builds.

That last clause is the whole story. A bigger grid is a better business. When a data center arrives and new substations, lines and power plants go up, those assets join the utility's “rate base”: the pile of investments that every customer pays a return on, for decades. California expects electricity demand to grow 61% over the next two decades (Sen. Becker, SB 913).

Where a utility dollar goes

55¢
20¢
25¢
  • 55¢ · Running the system (fuel, operations, maintenance)
  • 20¢ · Paying back what was built (depreciation)
  • 25¢ · Return on what was built (profit, interest, taxes. Grows with every new build)

Regulators authorize equity returns of ~9.5–10%; markets would accept ~5.5–7% (same source).

Illustrative cost-of-service revenue requirement. Source: MarketClear Utility Capital (Mark Ellis), draft for discussion, Oct 2025.

Does that actually show up on household bills? A new MIT study looked at data center arrivals from 2010 to 2024. The answer depended on who owned the utility.

Same data centers, different bills

Investor-owned utilities+5.6%
All utilities+2.7%
Residential customers+2.1%
Cooperatives~0%

Who owns the wires decides who pays.

Source: MIT CEEPR working paper, ‘Who Pays for Growth? Evidence from Datacenters and the Grid’, abstract as circulated on the Electricity Brain Trust list. Effects are much smaller at publicly-owned utilities and absent at cooperatives.

“The American people should not be footing the bill for the benefit of private companies.”

Ratepayer Protection Pledge, March 2026, as quoted by Kavulla

How much power AI needs is an engineering question. Who pays for it is an institutional one, and institutions can be redesigned.

More·What economists still argue about

Economists still argue about the size of the effect; the study is new and the AI build-out is newer. One energy-policy veteran in the same discussion put it fairly: “there are no cut-and-dried conclusions, and context across regions and states matters a lot.” But the direction of the argument is clear.

Read the paper: MIT CEEPR, “Who Pays for Growth? Evidence from Datacenters and the Grid.”

How the field is responding

  1. 01

    Make data centers pay their own way

    Price grid access at the added cost of serving it, for example through an open season where data centers compete for hookups (Kavulla). Oregon just created a separate rate class for them.

  2. 02

    Bring your own power, or flex

    Require data centers to bring their own generation, or cut back at peak. Texas already requires curtailment for expedited hookups.

  3. 03

    Use what's already built

    Pay customer-owned solar, batteries and thermostats to cover the peak instead of building new plants that everyone pays a return on. SB 913 and programs like WattCarbon's Repowering California open this up.

The third is the side of the meter we work on. That's the next chapter.

More·Questions for the table